Well, a rather xor response, but that's ok. Let's go a different route: Someone is using a diet change (fixed), and the elliptical machine to lose weight. This person has no exercise background. The elliptical routine is basic - same program, one hour a day, 8 weeks. BF test is done at the end of each week. Graph the results. What do you think the plot will look like? Why did the subject's weight loss stall out?
Estimations are meant to be exactly that, estimations. Don't try to make them anything else. They offer a grey answer, so use the best tools you have to deliver that grey answer. In this case, it's simply comparing challenges for size, complexity, etc. Don't try to do estimations in a different way just because you want an immediate answer. Estimations are meant to be a starting point to get to a minimum survivable solution. That's how humans use instinctive tools that use the least amount of energy to get to a point that they can survive a challenge. Think about the elliptical example.
In scrum, estimations are the conscious way to get this discovery kicked off; they aren't meant to be an answer, because you don't have enough data yet for a solution. They are meant to be a starting point. Iterate to the solution. When you think you have enough signal for a solution (the sprint), do your final check and balance, which is a tasking plan in hours, during sprint planning.
Another example: The year is 1929, and you're asked to guess the weight of the Empire State Bldg before construction has even begun (1931). What answer delivers more survival information? 180,000 tons, or this: "Well, we know each floor is going to have x concrete, y steel, but not sure about the other construction materials. So it will be something like (x+y+?)*#floors. If your life depended on it, which answer would you go with?
You are looking for a number, and that's why people don't understand what estimating is about. The incorrect approach is like, "Well these estimations are crap, so let's change the estimation methodology." Yeah but it's still and estimation, and you already have a great instinctive tool to make those estimations via relative size comparison, which can be done so quickly, it could literally save your life. Instinctively, we accept that, conscoiusly we don't, so we turn into ill tempered Veruca Salt.
Regarding the golf reference, I'm from Florida. Sorry if the attempt at levity was weak.
Estimations are meant to be exactly that, estimations. Don't try to make them anything else. They offer a grey answer, so use the best tools you have to deliver that grey answer. In this case, it's simply comparing challenges for size, complexity, etc. Don't try to do estimations in a different way just because you want an immediate answer. Estimations are meant to be a starting point to get to a minimum survivable solution. That's how humans use instinctive tools that use the least amount of energy to get to a point that they can survive a challenge. Think about the elliptical example.
In scrum, estimations are the conscious way to get this discovery kicked off; they aren't meant to be an answer, because you don't have enough data yet for a solution. They are meant to be a starting point. Iterate to the solution. When you think you have enough signal for a solution (the sprint), do your final check and balance, which is a tasking plan in hours, during sprint planning.
Another example: The year is 1929, and you're asked to guess the weight of the Empire State Bldg before construction has even begun (1931). What answer delivers more survival information? 180,000 tons, or this: "Well, we know each floor is going to have x concrete, y steel, but not sure about the other construction materials. So it will be something like (x+y+?)*#floors. If your life depended on it, which answer would you go with?
You are looking for a number, and that's why people don't understand what estimating is about. The incorrect approach is like, "Well these estimations are crap, so let's change the estimation methodology." Yeah but it's still and estimation, and you already have a great instinctive tool to make those estimations via relative size comparison, which can be done so quickly, it could literally save your life. Instinctively, we accept that, conscoiusly we don't, so we turn into ill tempered Veruca Salt.
Regarding the golf reference, I'm from Florida. Sorry if the attempt at levity was weak.