In theory you're missing the network effect of everyone already being on Facebook. So they can quickly spin up a vast virtual world with all the people you know already in it.
In practice, it hasn't happened, and nobody seems excited to do it. Whatever benefits they hope to get from the network effect seem unlikely thus far.
Through in my experience no one but old people is actually on facebook. (EDIT: In the country where I live.)
A lot of middle aged people might still have an account because old people and aged contacts but don't really want to use it.
And this scenario still requires most people to have a VR headset which doesn't make them sick and is comfortable and easy to use, which is not just technically still a bit off AFIK but also has tricky problems. Like a lot of people have glasses, including many "non trivial" ones and just the act of needing to replace glasses with contact lenses makes it "annoying" and that is iff you can have contact lenses.
Then it needs to be lightweight, but also fast and to be charged but can't have a large battery and a cable is also annoying and needs high enough frequency/resolution but also cheap and must not get too war either. Also while it needs to be cheap it also must fit all kinds of head sizes and form very well so you kinda both need and must not have a one size fits all solution.
And even if you add all of that up it still holds that for a lot of tasks text/images is still best. I thats why most websites and apps are still "2d" today it's just more practical.
So it's a bit like video calls, but needing a specialized device instead of just your phone/laptop/AIO PC.
So for it to work IMHO you would need to do something like replacing phones with hybrid VR/AR glasses which are technological a jump comparable to the last 10(or more) years. And have hand tracking in the glasses as an camera. And convince most people to run around with glasses all the time (good luck). And convince people that using a facbook controlled device with camera and mic in nearly every part of their live both offline and online.
So it's possible, but especially for Facebook it's hard and I think they went all-in ~5-10 years to early. IMHO Apple has much better chances to take over that space, and if they do it right not limited to Apple users.
I think you’re right. Facebook usage is way down for people who aren’t tracking retirement costs and a lot of that is quick tasks like getting rid of baby stuff on the local parents group: not without value but hard to base a world-changing valuation on. Getting rid of the noise would have helped but I don’t think they could now get trust back without a new CEO who vocally breaks with the past, and that’s going to really hurt when the proposition is “you should trust us with everything you see and hear”.
I’m curious what Apple’s play will be. They better positioned with best-in-class mobile devices and that could allow starting small to avoid needing to justify a $1+k purchase — arguably we’ve already seen that with AirPod-style AR, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the first devices was something like a sports accessory allowing you to race your friends (or personal best) or do something like an adventure run, where you completely punt on the uncanny valley of realistic people and needing the virtual content to be compelling enough on its own rather than enhancing an existing experience. VR sets the bar a lot higher than AR and Apple wouldn’t need to keep you in for hours to sell ads.
> Through in my experience no one but old people is actually on facebook. (
I'd lower that threshold to middle-aged people (I'm in my early 40s myself), but that's about it. Facebook the social media platform is a sinking ship.
Facebook's popular and people use it a lot because you can use it on the shitter or in line at the grocery store or for five minutes in bed when you briefly wake up at 3AM or while feeding the baby or while not paying attention in a boring meeting or under your desk while you're pretending to work or on the subway.
No metaverse will be anywhere near as popular as Facebook proper if it can't match that feature. Even one that's built on Facebook. This entire sector is software R&D that's being done in anticipation of eventually hardware breakthroughs that'll make it not-suck—so right now, it kinda sucks, and there's no getting around that until the hardware gets a lot nicer.
In practice, it hasn't happened, and nobody seems excited to do it. Whatever benefits they hope to get from the network effect seem unlikely thus far.