"Based on the author's logic you might as well throw up your hands and stop trying to predict anything."
You say this like it proves the author is wrong. This point isn't really that obscure, Nicholas Nassim Taleb sold millions of books making this very point over the last couple years.
"This is like saying when a doctor tells a patient that if he keeps smoking he will get cancer, and the patient gets cancer, he just did it by luck."
No, this is a poor analogy. Its more like saying that if you keep predicting someone is going to get cancer for smoking, eating apples, drinking Coors Light, and playing basketball you shouldn't get any credibility for being right on one and wrong on all the others.
"All the austrians predicted the housing bubble."
Yes, but they also mispredicted a lot of other things, thats the point.
You say this like it proves the author is wrong. This point isn't really that obscure, Nicholas Nassim Taleb sold millions of books making this very point over the last couple years.
"This is like saying when a doctor tells a patient that if he keeps smoking he will get cancer, and the patient gets cancer, he just did it by luck."
No, this is a poor analogy. Its more like saying that if you keep predicting someone is going to get cancer for smoking, eating apples, drinking Coors Light, and playing basketball you shouldn't get any credibility for being right on one and wrong on all the others.
"All the austrians predicted the housing bubble."
Yes, but they also mispredicted a lot of other things, thats the point.