It is believed to be unlikely that a court would compel a company's false speech to maintain a warrant canary.
> Have courts upheld compelled speech?
> Rarely. In a few instances, the courts have upheld compelled speech in the commercial context, where the government shows that the compelled statements convey important truthful information to consumers. For example, warnings on cigarette packs are a form of compelled commercial speech that have sometimes been upheld, and sometimes struck down, depending on whether the government shows there is a rational basis for the warning.
> Have courts upheld compelled false speech?
> No, and the cases on compelled speech have tended to rely on truth as a minimum requirement. For example, Planned Parenthood challenged a requirement that physicians tell patients seeking abortions of an increased risk of suicidal ideation. The court found that Planned Parenthood did not meet its burden of showing that the disclosure was untruthful, misleading, or not relevant to the patient’s decision to have an abortion.
The right question isn't “will courts issue a direct order to maintain a warrant canary to conceal a warrant (or, more likely, an administrative subpoena like an NSL) protected by a non-disclosure order”, it is “will courts punish signalling the existence of a warrant (etc.) protected by a non-disclosure order by dropping a warrant canary as they would any other action done to signal the existence of such a warrant.”
Which is why even the EFF doesn't recommend dropping the canary immediately but instead going to court to seek vindication of the right to drop the canary before so doing.
I don’t think it would be forced directly. I think they’d put the company under a gag with threat of criminal punishment if they do anything to “signal” an investigation. Then an operator has to ask themself “is it worth risking jail time by updating this page?”
The appeal of the Warrant Canary design is that the operator simply has to take no action (i.e. not update the page) to signal that they've been contacted by law enforcement, in theory making it safer. It's still a risk though.
It is believed to be unlikely that a court would compel a company's false speech to maintain a warrant canary.
> Have courts upheld compelled speech?
> Rarely. In a few instances, the courts have upheld compelled speech in the commercial context, where the government shows that the compelled statements convey important truthful information to consumers. For example, warnings on cigarette packs are a form of compelled commercial speech that have sometimes been upheld, and sometimes struck down, depending on whether the government shows there is a rational basis for the warning.
> Have courts upheld compelled false speech?
> No, and the cases on compelled speech have tended to rely on truth as a minimum requirement. For example, Planned Parenthood challenged a requirement that physicians tell patients seeking abortions of an increased risk of suicidal ideation. The court found that Planned Parenthood did not meet its burden of showing that the disclosure was untruthful, misleading, or not relevant to the patient’s decision to have an abortion.