Maybe I am just not following, but the arguments of Sabine Hossenfelder, Scott Aaronson, and of a great many posts here seem to assume that reality is something like what we (or should I say I?) experience. If our (my) universe is a simulation, nothing we (I) perceive about it is trustworthy, and that applies as much to odds as to absolutes. Has there been any argument against the possibility that does not either beg the question by tacitly assuming that our perceptions inform us about the ultimate reality, or alternatively squeeze the essence of the problem into a tight little knot and thereafter avoid dealing with it directly, as I think Kant (among others) did? I do not actually think I am a simulation, but I cannot argue against it.